Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models

Abstract We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results large ensembles global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting similarities inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, models tend to project a wetter compared especially over Eastern Sahel, Central East Africa. However, other more consistent. In general, all increase maximum intensity during wet season regions emission scenarios (except West Sahel decrease frequency (under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) Atlas region, southern central Africa, Africa Depending on season, length dry spells is projected consistently most (if all) Ethiopian highlands region. Discrepancies exist change specific seasons. For instance, July–August show but robust decrease. Global also opposite sign spells. CORE marked drying affected monsoon throughout year, accompanied May July that present ensembles. This enhanced may be related physical mechanisms better resolved higher resolution highlights importance process-based evaluation controlling